Peters’ push to turn Europe’s eyes south

Analysis: This week marks a year since the Government took power. And in that time, Winston Peters has done a phenomenal amount of globe-trotting.
By the end of this week, the third-time foreign minister will have visited 38 countries – six of those countries he’s visited twice, and one of them three times (Indonesia).
He will have attended 11 major international forums (the UN General Assembly twice), and visited 15 of the 17 Pacific Islands Forum member countries (just Kiribati and New Caledonia to go).
By many accounts, he’s out-travelled and out-engaged all other New Zealand foreign ministers in recent history. The only one who’d give him a run for his money is former National minister Murray McCully, during his bid for a seat on the UN Security Council.
At a time when the world is facing its most severe geopolitical challenges since WWII, Peters sees the importance of New Zealand re-engaging with the world. That means, physically going there, talking to those with influence and those with not much, and reminding global powers that small states matter. 
Despite what some may think, diplomacy matters too.
When the coalition Government came into power, Christopher Luxon talked about a foreign policy “reset”. And while the Prime Minister has also travelled like a demon this past year, at 79 years, Peters is flying rings around him.
During his early trips overseas, the Prime Minister showed a natural flair for leader-to-leader relationship building, but he struggled to articulate exactly what defined this reset. It seems it’s one of those cases where actions (or flight miles) speak louder than words.
But because words seriously matter too, Peters has been taking every viable chance to clear his throat on foreign policy.
This week will mark his seventh major foreign policy speech since taking office.
In the early hours of Wednesday morning (NZT), Peters will give a speech to the Institut Français des Relations Internationals in Paris, where he’s expected to, again, state the importance of traditional partners.
In his press release announcing the trip to Europe, where he will meet counterparts in Paris, Berlin and London, Peters said: “Since taking office almost a year ago, the Coalition Government has emphasised the importance we place on New Zealand’s traditional and likeminded diplomatic and security partners.
“At a time when the world is becoming increasingly complex and contested, it is more important than ever that we reinforce these crucial relationships.”
The speech will also narrow in on an issue Peters has been paying close attention to: New Caledonia.
Unrest broke out in the middle of the year – a flow-on from the country’s (flawed) third independence referendum. Peters was due to travel to New Caledonia at the time, now – if he plays his cards right – the path could open for a more productive visit to Noumea to round out his year.
During his ‘Pacific Futures’ speech in Tokyo in July, the foreign minister seemingly sought to puncture Paris’s pride over the situation in its Pacific territory. The speech looked to create some cognitive dissonance over how the third referendum had been handled and raise questions about whether those in charge had been sensitive to the cultural practices and rights of the indigenous Kanak communities.
While that speech went down like a lead balloon in Paris, with the change of political situation, there may now be more willingness to try a new way forward.
This time around, Peters will likely take the opposite approach in search of the same ends: some involvement from New Zealand to ensure a peaceful and enduring resolution.
Expect a speech that praises Paris, and picks up on the motto that drives the French style of democracy: Liberty, equality, fraternity.
That last part is especially important to New Zealand when it comes to its Pacific neighbours, and as New Zealand’s closest Pacific neighbour, New Caledonia matters a lot.
Paris and Noumea stare down the barrel of an eye-watering reconstruction bill sitting somewhere between $5 billion and $8b, and New Zealand is willing to offer a helping hand.
The countries are at a fork in the road, and when considering what a future for New Caledonia might look like, New Zealand is urging them to consider the path less travelled.
While the situation remains tense, there’s no turning back now, so the foreign minister has an opportunity to suggest some compromises; middle-ground options. New Zealand’s arrangements with the Cook Islands and Niue could act as inspiration as the two parties pick their way through.
Regardless of what Paris and Noumea decide, New Zealand is invested in how they get there. If the process can lead to a stronger and more stable New Caledonia, and mean France remains engaged in the Indo-Pacific Region, then New Zealand wins. 
At a time when New Zealand is greatly concerned about the change in strategic balance in the region, it’s vital that key players like France, the UK and Germany – with Australia and the US – remain engaged and willing to spend in the Indo-Pacific.
If the current trajectories don’t change, Pacific countries fear China will be able to increasingly dictate how things operate, such as which vessels get to pass where, all the way through to the militarisation of New Zealand’s near-region.
The latest Lowy Institute Pacific Aid Map, which last week was updated to include data from 2022, shows an 18 percent annual drop in official development finance. Other key findings from the latest data include:
It might sound paternalistic or part of an ingrained colonial mindset to assume an increased presence of traditional, western players is the best thing for the region. But Pacific nations have been clear that they want a broad range of partners, and they want to be able to make their own decisions.
Many Pacific nations have hard-fought independence and they don’t want to be beholden to China anymore than they did to previous colonial powers.
At a time when Europe is fighting the biggest blazes close to home, it’s easy to imagine a scenario where the Indo-Pacific Region takes a backseat. But with the escalation of North Korea and China’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict, the link between the different regions is now hitting Europe directly.
If anyone can hammer home the strategic importance of the Indo-Pacific Region to New Zealand’s traditional partners, it’s Peters.
As a foreign minister, Peters plays a long-game, and he understands the importance of history and looking well into the future. 
He may have had this gig twice before, but the stakes haven’t been this high. So, giving everything he’s got to save New Zealand’s back yard from becoming another theatre of war, sounds like a pretty decent legacy – even if that comes at a cost of racking up 110 days out of the country and 300 political engagements in a year.